A decade after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the nation and unleashed chaos, a caution is issued from beyond the Irish Sea: it might repeat.
Policymakers and electorate sleepwalked into Brexit and the same may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, initiating disturbances for which nobody is ready.
That conveys the caution from two respected journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland departing the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Unprepared
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have found that the government bodies in Ireland and Britain are gravely unready for a possibly fraught and seismic referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can emerge unexpectedly and can gather momentum rapidly," the commentator said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains very unstable."
New Title Intends to Stir Debate
The duo have studied the governmental, financial and cultural reasons for any structural alteration in a publication, For and Against a United Ireland, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They aim to provoke discussion on the issue with a tour of lectures that will bring them to Westminster early next month.
"What troubles all parties, or must worry everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," stated O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a yes-no, ambiguous question whose consequences have remained undefined because then you end up with an extraordinarily split population where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the people who have won lack clarity quite what it is that they have achieved."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland government minister must arrange a public vote on Irish unification if it is indicated that a most voters would support.
Nationalist parties and other nationalists argue such a time is imminent, and a group named Ireland’s Future has rallied support, but both governments and unionists downplay the likelihood, leaving it unclear whether or when there could be a referendum.
Insufficient Substantive Discussion
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of serious debate, noted McBride.
"Many are for or against the notion but the actual thinking which could extend past that to realise it has largely not occurred. Much has taken place in academia but hardly any elected officials or advocates are willing to participate even with the essentials. For instance, which kind of country would you want? Centralised? Federal?"
Book's Approach
In the publication, none of the commentators advocates unity or the status quo. They writes two essays that seek impartiality in presenting the rationale for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering financial and social data, previous instances and constitutional models.
Debates range over flags and symbols, levies, medical care, elderly benefits, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of loyalist violence. The aim is to enlighten and stimulate discussion.
"Considerable attention exists in the issue but there is still lacking a discussion," said the writer. "Discussion suggests an recognition of the notion that there may exist valid points on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the republic, where citizens claim they support unification but reject paying higher taxes or introducing a different emblem to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland does need to determine what the proposal from Irish nationalism is beyond just declaring: 'We want a unified Ireland and we love you'," remarked the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride believes a national vote in his generation is likely and that it may take place unexpectedly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a poor or a feckless secretary of state who declares: 'Let us proceed and settle the matter.'"
Each of the nationalists and unionists have reasonable, legitimate points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail on this issue and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has possesses important lessons to acquire from the other's viewpoints."
Appeal for Wider Dialogue
Westminster must participate in the dialogue, said the analyst. "This concerns your state. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
