Europe breathed a deep collective sigh of relief on Monday, as the diplomatic emergency caused by the presentation of a new 28-point plan for resolving the conflict appeared – temporarily – to have been stabilised. A Washington representative spoke of "significant advancement" after Ukraine-US talks in Geneva. On Monday night, the Kremlin made its response: an extensive attack of rocket attacks on Kyiv.
The Pattern of Peace Talks and Military Action
The chain of conflicting incidents captured the bleak nature of the outgoing year. By day, negotiation efforts are waged: positive announcements are delivered from different nations. Considerable effort is expended on restraining certain initiatives. By night, the Kremlin brutally reminds the world that, for them, military action persists as the main instrument for achieving "settlement".
After-Dark Attacks
As Russia's attack developed into the early hours of Tuesday, the present situation of Ukraine's vulnerability was laid bare. Ukraine is capable of detecting missile launches from Russian territory, a capacity enabled by timely intelligence. From witness perspectives, defense planes that had been dispatched to intercept incoming aerial threats roared overhead – modern combat jets supplied to Ukraine by Western partners.
Shortly after, Kyiv's anti-aircraft weapons thundered: several firings fired to intercept a Russian ballistic missile. This was a modern interception technology at work, probably delivered by partner states. Every launch creates sudden vibrations, rattling buildings. The brief panic quickly becomes sober acceptance: perhaps the hostile projectile won't strike its target this time, preventing destruction from devastation and further power outages.
Ongoing Risks
Soon after, a large-caliber weapon opened up on a drone in the vicinity, part of a defensive team – most likely imported technology. Sadly, the shots failed to hit the opposing UAV – it continued its flight toward its destination.
With pauses, this persisted until dawn. Kyiv faced the daybreak reports: seven people killed, devastation and infrastructure problems in many homes as a result of the nocturnal offensive. As typically, everyone still went about their day – enduring hostilities. But those 24 hours demonstrated Ukraine's vital need on international aid – a need that regional partners are demonstrably unable to substitute in the short term.
Unsuccessful Negotiations
The detailed framework from American leadership sparked intense emotion, discussion and deep concern – and temporarily diverted attention from Ukraine's most significant graft case in years. Yet, we have experienced comparable situations, after previous diplomatic encounters and multilateral gatherings.
Every new proposal from US leadership follows the same pattern: a diplomatic cavalry charge against Ukraine, which Kyiv, with partner nations, effectively counters. They stabilise the situation but never actually secure success. This cycle will, no doubt, endure.
Tactical Assessments
It is easy to blame certain parties of persistently promoting Moscow's conditions. But that does not seem to be the entire situation. US administration operates on a assumption well known to seasoned negotiators: you cannot win at the negotiating table what you have lost on the battlefield. The US administration presumes that it is unrealistic to pressure the Kremlin to surrender the territory that it already controls in Ukraine's south or east.
The problem is that while acknowledging this situation, American administration does nothing to discourage Russia, through statements or actions, from assuming that the situation will not evolve additionally in its favour in the near future.
Opposing Positions
Therefore, the Kremlin is convinced that the clock favors them – that Ukraine and its partners are approaching exhaustion. Their motivation to sign a deal that does not give them the greatest potential benefit is close to zero. There may be many attempts to stop fighting, but they will persist as long as Russia's government remains completely certain in the outcome.
On the contrary, Ukrainian leadership believes that Ukraine can still endure, gradually sacrificing civilians and areas but avoiding a entire defensive failure until conditions improve in its favour.
Current Realities
Realistically, there are no actual prerequisites for a truce. Now, personal considerations are entering the equation: political desires to mediate resolution and achieve global acclaim, and Ukrainian leadership's dual difficulties – on one hand, not to distance important partners, and on the other, to unite the population around the country's interests against any proposal Kyiv finds unacceptable, so that their focus does not shift toward domestic problems. And although their mission will now be much harder after latest incidents, it remains quite doubtful that this will alter their fundamental strategy.
These opposing factors are influencing discussions.
Assessment and Future
It took a only one week to kill the proposed articles of the latest plan. Aggressive and erratic handling of the matter by Washington, opposition by Ukraine and the other European countries, along with soothing efforts of representatives, and finally, current information leaks, all did their job.
While new initiatives based on old ideas are forthcoming, Kyiv, London and other Western governments should arrive at a critical understanding: Ukraine and Europe will only be able to fend off diplomatic offensives from Washington that are founded on Moscow's terms and reflect particular unwillingness to alter the situation, if they remain united and enhance their military capacity at a significantly accelerated rate. If they do, no combination of diplomatic or military actions will be able to defeat them. In the meantime, Ukraine's capability to counter nocturnal attacks will, for the predictable period, primarily depend on sustained allied backing.
